Global Trade at Risk as Gulf Powers Seek Security Pact Over Hormuz Strait

Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, energy supplies, and the security of global trade are at the center of talks between Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq and Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman, as escalating US-Iranian confrontation pushes Gulf coordination to a critical juncture.

The timing is not incidental. Omani analysts consulted by Asharq Al-Awsat describe the visit as carrying exceptional weight precisely because ordinary citizens, businesses, and governments worldwide depend on the uninterrupted flow of oil and goods through one of the world’s most contested waterways.

Asim al-Shaidi, editor-in-chief of an Oman newspaper, characterized the meeting as coming “at an extremely sensitive moment for the entire Gulf.” The US-Iran conflict, he noted, has demonstrated how quickly regional confrontation spreads beyond its immediate parties, disrupting shipping, energy flows, Gulf economies, and global supply chains. The two countries bring distinct but complementary strengths to the table. Oman sits directly along the Strait of Hormuz and maintains open political channels with both Iran and the United States, giving it a credible mediating role. Saudi Arabia, as the Gulf’s largest economic and political power and a leading global energy producer, carries the regional and international weight to anchor any broader settlement.

Al-Shaidi pressed for a shift in approach. “The past few months have shown that Gulf security cannot remain hostage to military deterrence alone,” he said. “The region needs clearer rules for managing disputes, protecting maritime passages, and preventing them from becoming instruments of pressure during conflicts.” His argument, in short: crisis management is not enough.

Mohammed al-Araimi, an Omani political and strategic affairs writer, identified the security of shipping and energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz as the central concern. Navigation through the strait, he said, is “one of the most sensitive issues,” and its resolution extends far beyond any single country. “It concerns global economic security and international trade and energy flows,” al-Araimi said. “Protecting the strait and ensuring the smooth flow of shipping through it are therefore shared interests of every country in the region and the international community.” He also highlighted Oman’s active mediation between Washington and Tehran, describing efforts to “contain the dangerous escalation between the two sides, open paths for constructive dialogue and strengthen the foundations of trust between the warring parties.” Stability in Hormuz, he stressed, can only come through “understandings, guarantees and dialogue among the parties concerned,” not through further escalation.

Meanwhile, al-Shaidi pointed to recent Omani efforts that have moved beyond traditional diplomacy into practical arrangements: consultations with Iran have addressed a temporary shipping corridor, mine clearance, and future frameworks for managing maritime traffic and exchanging security information. Any long-term arrangement, however, requires broader regional acceptance. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states must be central parties to any future vision for maritime security, not peripheral observers to a bilateral Omani-Iranian understanding.

The deeper question the visit raises concerns the future shape of the Gulf security order itself. Al-Shaidi outlined three elements any durable settlement would need: respect for the sovereignty and rights of coastal states, guarantees of freedom of navigation under international law, and the direct involvement of regional countries in shaping arrangements that affect their own security.

Omani political writer Zakariya al-Muharrami pointed to the “serious security and economic challenges caused by the US-Iranian war” and called for “concerted efforts, coordinated positions and renewed strategic cooperation between the two largest countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council.” He noted Saudi Arabia’s political and economic weight as a potential bridge between the warring parties, and cited the kingdom’s role as a strategic logistics corridor for Gulf countries, Iraq, and the Levant seeking routes around the Hormuz bottleneck.

Ibrahim al-Azri, an Omani writer and former head of the Oman News Agency, offered the starkest warning. Continued attacks and strikes, he said, would worsen security and economic conditions across the Gulf Cooperation Council states, the broader region, and the world. Both Oman and Saudi Arabia have called for de-escalation and a return to diplomatic dialogue. “Delaying solutions to the Strait of Hormuz crisis could have severe repercussions in the coming days,” al-Azri said.

Both countries are also working to maintain supply chains and keep oil shipments flowing to nations importing crude from the Arab Gulf states. Whether the consultations between Sultan Haitham and Crown Prince Mohammed produce the kind of coordinated framework that analysts are calling for, or remain a statement of shared concern without binding commitments, will determine how much protection ordinary people and economies on both sides of the strait can actually count on.