Oman is attempting to broker a high-stakes diplomatic meeting in Salalah on Monday, bringing together foreign ministers from the Gulf Cooperation Council and Iranian officials in an effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical maritime petroleum corridor.
The gathering, if it proceeds, would include representatives from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman and Iran. People with knowledge of the discussions, who requested anonymity given the sensitive nature of the matter, confirmed the outreach. Whether all parties will attend remains uncertain. Escalating violence between Saudi-backed forces and Iran-supported Houthi fighters in Yemen poses a significant obstacle to the planned talks.
For ordinary citizens and energy consumers worldwide, the stakes are immediate. The Strait of Hormuz has operated under severely constrained conditions since late February, when the U.S. and Israel initiated strikes on Iran. Limited vessel traffic has resumed in recent weeks, though primarily during nighttime hours and under U.S. military escort, according to Bloomberg reporting. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increasingly relied on pipeline infrastructure to move crude around the strait, allowing them to maintain portions of their export capacity despite the shipping restrictions.
Tehran has long sought to maintain its authority over the strait and has been engaged in preliminary discussions with Oman for weeks regarding a potential maritime traffic management framework. Any such arrangement would likely include transit fees for vessels passing through the waterway, a concept that Washington and Gulf states have rejected. Washington has pushed for unrestricted passage, while Tehran has resisted surrendering control of the channel.
Meanwhile, a second chokepoint is coming under pressure. Houthi forces are advancing toward Red Sea coastal areas adjacent to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another major global shipping corridor. Saudi Arabia has already begun rerouting crude through pipelines to western export terminals in response to Hormuz restrictions. The Houthis have also continued their campaign of missile and drone strikes against Saudi Arabia, causing damage to energy infrastructure and raising the prospect of further disruptions to oil exports.
A simultaneous disruption affecting Bab el-Mandeb, layered on top of the existing Hormuz constraints, would substantially reduce Middle East oil export capacity and intensify competition for alternative shipping routes. That scenario would place additional strain on global energy supplies and amplify price pressures already visible at the pump.
Oil markets have responded sharply. Brent crude prices climbed this week as expectations for a swift resolution to U.S.-Iran tensions faded. The benchmark is tracking its largest weekly gain since July, though prices fell more than 3 percent on Friday to approximately $104 per barrel after the International Energy Agency issued a warning about weakening global demand.
Whether Monday’s proposed talks in Salalah can produce even a preliminary framework for restoring normal shipping remains an open question, particularly with the Yemen conflict still burning and full GCC attendance far from guaranteed.