Gulf shipping crisis deepens; fuel costs rise and flights cancelled for residents

Ship crossings through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen from 15 a few days ago to just 6 by Sunday, according to maritime tracker Kpler, and the ripple effects are already reaching Gulf residents in the form of cancelled flights, longer journey times and rising fuel costs.

That single statistic captures the scale of disruption. The Strait normally carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply. With traffic collapsing, shipping has shifted sharply toward the Red Sea’s Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which recorded over a hundred crossings in the same period. The rerouting adds distance, cost and uncertainty to supply chains that millions of people depend on.

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For travellers, the consequences are immediate. Etihad has cancelled its Abu Dhabi-Bahrain and Abu Dhabi-Kuwait services. Air Arabia has pulled several regional flights. Emirates has yet to confirm some Dubai-Bahrain and Dubai-Kuwait services. Passengers are being advised to check flight status before heading to the airport and to monitor airline apps and websites for last-minute changes. Airlines that are still flying but avoiding restricted airspace may add one to three hours to some routes, forcing travellers to build in extra time for connections.

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency has extended its conflict-zone advisory for affected Gulf airspace until August 31, citing ongoing security risks.

Meanwhile, the political deadlock driving all of this shows no sign of breaking. Iran says it will not reopen the Strait until the United States ends its naval blockade of Iranian ports, halts military action, withdraws blockade forces, pays war damages, drops sanctions and unfreezes Iranian assets. Officials say there are no direct US-Iran talks underway, only messages passed through mediators. President Trump has described the situation as “semi-negotiating” and said he is prepared to let economic pressure on Iran increase.

A partial workaround is taking shape. Talks between Iran and Oman on a temporary alternate shipping lane are reportedly in their final stages, with a new maritime route potentially replacing the existing northern and southern passages. Tehran has been clear, though: any agreement with Oman would not constitute a full reopening of the Strait. Its broader conditions with Washington remain firmly in place.

Oil markets are already pricing in the uncertainty. Brent crude pushed past 84 dollars a barrel as traders weighed the disruption to a route that handles about a fifth of global supply.

The environmental toll is also mounting. An oil tanker reportedly part of Russia’s sanctions-evading shadow fleet ran aground near a protected marine area in Oman, spilling oil across roughly 390 square kilometres of sensitive coastline. The incident is a reminder that geopolitical tensions carry real environmental costs for communities living along affected shores.

Regional security arrangements are shifting in response to the broader instability. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey signed a mutual defence agreement under which an attack on any one of them would be treated as an attack on all three, a signal that countries in the region are tightening their commitments to one another as the situation evolves.

Not every carrier has suspended services. Qatar Airways, Saudia, Oman Air and SalamAir have resumed or maintained flights to some Gulf destinations, and flydubai is running limited services. Schedules remain subject to change.

For a fuller picture of developments, see gulfnews.com/world/mena/uae-residents-update-flight-updates-oil-spill-near-oman-strait-of-hormuz-standoff-1.500636428.

Whether Iran and Oman can finalise a temporary shipping arrangement in the coming days, and whether that arrangement can hold without a broader resolution of the US-Iran standoff, will determine how long Gulf residents and global energy consumers continue to absorb the costs of this disruption.